A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
